Adaptation in action in the Maldives

The Maldivian new President, Mohamed Nasheed, announced its long-term climate change adaptation strategy: the creation of an insurance against the climate in the form of a “sovereign wealth investment fund”, to be replenished by a portion of annual tourism revenues. The fund will be used to buy land in foreign countries, which could welcome the 380,000 islanders in case climate change renders the country inhabitable.

The countries that President Nasheed has in mind as possible land sellers are Sri Lanka and India, because of their cultural similarities to the Maldives, and Australia, because of its land availability.

The Maldives’ vulnerabilities to climate change are numerous: the Maldives is formed by a chain of 1,192 islands and atolls made up of coral and coral sand in the Indian Ocean, its highest point is only 2.4 metres above sea level, 80% of its land area is less than 1 metre above water, and all of the human settlement, industry and vital infrastructures lie very close to the shoreline. Moreover, its population is dispersed across very small islands, some of them being remote and not easily accessible, and its economy is highly dependent on tourism and imports.

In the face of climate change, sea level rise threatens the integrity of most of the Maldives through aggravated beach erosion and inundation from water rising from the ground, as well as water overtopping dune ridges. Being made of coral limestone, the islands of the Maldives are among the least defensible against sea level rise in the world. Inundation of land and associated saltwater intrusion will threaten fresh water availability because of groundwater contamination. Water resources in the country will also be further degraded by changes in rainfall patterns.
Most of the Maldives inhabitants are already supplied with water by desalinisation plants which are very energy intensive and can be unsustainable in a low carbon future.

After a disastrous storm event in April 1987, the Government of Maldives sought an engineering solution to the vulnerability of its capital city, Malé to sea level rise: a 1.2km long breakwater on the southern side of Malé and a protective sea wall for the rest of the island. The whole project amounted to a total of US$ 58 million in 2001. These engineered structures were designed based on the following standards of protection: a wave of wave height, a wall 2 metres above mean sea level and a period of 14 seconds. Those climatically-induced conditions might not be accurate much longer as a result of climate change, thus eroding their protective properties. An author estimated in 1998 the total cost of sea protections for 50 of the inhabited islands to be around US$ 1.5bn, which was more than three times the country’s GDP.

One of the most vulnerable physical assets in the Maldives is Malé International Airport which is also a key infrastructure for the country’s economy. It represents a total investment of more than US$ 57.4m in need of protection from the effects of climate change. The Asian Development Bank is currently supporting the enhancement of the existing Malé North Harbor which constitutes the main inter-island transport hub of the country. It is not indicated how those developments will be climate-proofed.
Resorts in the Maldives, as dictated by tourism regulations, are developed on uninhabited, small, low-lying, coralline islands. Most of the tourist bungalows and facilities are located around the island with an average setback of about 5 metres from the vegetation line. Some of the water based resort concepts have their tourist facilities over the lagoon on stilts. The current resort islands represent a considerable capital investment averaging US$ 41,964 per tourist bed.

Climate change impacts on low-lying islands are raising very sensitive issues. Sea-level rise is threatening the natural standard of protection ensured by coral reefs and challenging existing engineering solutions. Increased sea temperature and acidity are resulting in coral bleaching and dying. Water resources are increasingly under stress. The legal status of environmental refugees under international law is questioned, as well as the international liability of polluting countries for the harm done to those small island states.

John Firth, Acclimatise CEO, is working as an advisor to the Caribbean States and helping them develop a risk assessment methodology to understand the action they need to take to adapt to climate change.

Acclimatise provides world-class guidance and tools to companies and governments at the national, regional and local level on how to assess and manage their risks from climate change.

If you would like to learn more about our climate change risk management services and how we can help to manage the impacts of inevitable climate change, then please contact David Beer, d.beer@acclimatise.uk.com.