Category: Tourism

Pack your waders, we’re going… golfing! How climate change is threatening UK sports

Pack your waders, we’re going… golfing! How climate change is threatening UK sports

By Elisa Jiménez Alonso

A new report by the UK-based Climate Coalition finds that Open Championship venues like the St Andrews Old Course could be under water by the end of the 21st century even with a small increase in sea level rise. The report, called Game Changer: How climate change is impacting sports in the UK, finds that golf, football and cricket will face the most severe consequences. The Scottish skiing industry gets a very dark prediction as well, with the Climate Coalition saying it could collapse within the next 50 years.

“Climate change is already impacting our ability to play and watch the sports we love,” the Climate Coalition writes, and adds that extreme weather leads to declining participation and lost revenue.

The Open Championship, the UK’s only major professional golf tournament, is hosted on links courses including St Andrews, Royal Troon, Royal Birkdale, Hoylake, Royal Lytham & St Annes, Muirfield, Sandwich, Turnberry, Portrush, and 2018 venue Carnoustie. A links is the oldest form of golf courses and originated in Scotland. The name comes from the Scots language, meaning rising ground or ridge, and refers to an area of coastal sand dunes. As such, all links are at grave risk.

In Montrose, one of the world’s oldest golf courses with over 450 years, the third tee had to be sacrificed in 2017 due to reinforcement measures to protect the first and second tees from coastal erosion. In 2016, research done by the University of Dundee showed that in the past 30 years the North Sea has crept 70 metres towards Montrose.

“In a perfect storm we could lose 5-10 metres over just a couple of days and that could happen at pretty much any point.”

Director of the Montrose Golf Links explains in the report “As the sea rises and the coast falls away, we’re left with nowhere to go. Climate change is often seen as tomorrow’s problem – but it’s already eating away at our course. In a perfect storm we could lose 5-10 metres over just a couple of days and that could happen at pretty much any point.”

Other sports suffer too. In football, grassroots clubs are feeling the most severe impacts with bad weather reducing their playing seasons and flooding pitches. Cricket is also struggling, Cardiff-based club Glamorgan alone has lost 1,300 hours of cricket due to extreme weather and rainfall since 2000. The risk to the sport is so great it is already struggling to be commercially viable as less and less people get involved in the sport.

Interestingly enough, the solutions showcased in the report focus mostly on renewable energy and sustainability. While those are undoubtedly extremely important, it is clear sports need to adapt to changing climate conditions and build resilience to slow onset and sudden extreme weather events. Otherwise, economic losses could become an existential threat to the UK sports industry.

Download the Climate Coalition report Game Changer: How climate change is impacting sports in the UK by clicking here.

Visit the Climate Coalition website.

Cover photo by Andrew Rice on Unsplash
Climate change threatens Scotland’s historic sites

Climate change threatens Scotland’s historic sites

By Elisa Jiménez Alonso

A report released by Historic Environment Scotland (HES) identifies nearly a fifth of the almost 340 sites it oversees as being at very high risk of being badly damaged due to climate change. Another 70% of its sites are said to be at high risk in this first-of-its-kind study.

Climate and geological data from the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and British Geological Survey were combined with HES’s own site surveys to create detailed climate risk assessments of each site. These show that historic site, often already fragile and exposed, are at risk from increased flooding, coastal erosion, heavier winter precipitation and drier summers. The report states:

“Water is the most destructive agent of decay. On a large scale, heavy and intense rainfall can directly lead to flooding in a short time frame, which has the potential to cause catastrophic damage to all elements of the historic environment within reach of these potential flood zones.”

The 28 sites with the highest risk, which include Fort George near Inverness and the 800-year-old Incholm Abbey on Incholm Island, are at an “unacceptable level of risk exposure” which would require immediate adaptation measures. Other sites which received a red warning, like Edinburgh Castle which is at very high risk of landslides and groundwater flooding, received an amber rating because they are under constant supervision by HES.

The study is part of ongoing efforts “to develop best practice and integrate climate change actions into [HES’s] operations.” The HES was tasked by The Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme with quantifying heritage assets affected by climate change using GIS in order to create a climate change risk register for their properties.

The report could led to increased pressure on other conservation organisations like the National Trust to step up their research efforts and identify climate risks to their sites in order to protect them appropriately.

Download and read the full report on HES’s website:

Cover photo by Timo Newton-Syms: Incholm island and former Augustine abbey in the Firth of Forth, Scotland (CC BY-SA 2.0)
Climate change in the Alps: Threatening winter tourism and boosting summer tourism

Climate change in the Alps: Threatening winter tourism and boosting summer tourism

By Gracie Pearsall

The Alps are famous for their pristine slopes, which facilitate many popular winter sports, such as skiing. In fact, one third of every Euro that a tourist spends in Austria, can be traced back to tourism. However, climate change threatens the vitality of the mountainous terrain and the snow conditions that allow the snow sports to thrive. Yet, climate change also presents an economic opportunity because warmer conditions will make the Alps an appealing summer tourist destination.

Changing Conditions

Climate change will affect the Alps in two major ways: Temperature rise and altered precipitation patterns. Projections show the Alp’s mean temperature will increase at a rate much faster than the rest of Europe. The temperature in areas with elevation above 1500 meters will rise even more rapidly – likely increasing by 4.2° Celsius by the year 2100.

Warmer temperatures will reduce snow and glacier cover, increase run-off, and cause erosion. With warmer temperatures, the Alpine permafrost will melt, thus reducing slope stability and causing massive movements of rock and debris. Glacial lake outburst floods are severe flash floods that occur when a glacier, that is damming a lake, melts away. These floods will become more frequent as temperatures rise in the Alps.

Summer precipitation in the Alps will decrease, while winter precipitation increases. The increased winter precipitation will fall as rain rather than snow, and the number of snow-days/periods will significantly decrease. The increased winter rain will reduce snow cover and greatly increase the risk of run-off, erosion, and flooding. Conversely, the summers will become drier and warmer, exposing the Alps to risk from forest fires and drought.

Scientists expect extreme weather events, with heavy precipitation to become more frequent. These changes in precipitation, along with warmer temperatures, will completely alter the hydrometeorological conditions on which the tourism industry relies.

Effect on the industry

These climatic changes will have a particularly adverse effect on winter sports. The number of snow-reliable Alpine ski areas will likely decrease from 666 to 209 because of reduced snow cover and snowfall. Less snow and shorter seasons, along with the increased risk of natural disasters, such as landslides and avalanches, will detract from the Alp’s historic tourist appeal. Climate change will force ski areas to rely on artificial snowmaking, which will also contribute to climate change through the emission of greenhouse gasses.

The Mediterranean has long been the go-to summer getaway in Europe, but as the Mediterranean gets uncomfortably warm, many tourists will rush to the Alps. Projections show that summer tourism will increase in the high Alpine regions, lake regions, and low-lying city regions. Alpine summer sports, such as mountain biking, paragliding, hiking, and summer tobogganing, will become more popular under the improved climatic conditions. Although climate change will cause more frequent natural disasters and increase soil instability, the favorable conditions will counter these risks and actually draw summer tourists to the Alps.

Adaptation Plans

Currently, the main method for adapting the alpine tourism industry to climate change is a technological, short- term approach. The winter tourism sector is the one that mostly uses these technological adaptations. The adaptations include measures such as increasing the use of artificial snowmaking, moving facilities to higher altitudes, and slope development. While these measures will prolong the ski-areas’ profitability in the short term, these methods are unsustainable, and won’t compensate for the degradation of the Alpine slopes. These measures only increase the areas’ economic dependence on winter tourism, which will soon no longer be viable.

Instead, the Alps would be better off employing behavioral methods of adaptation with business and policy-based mechanisms, to encourage sustainable tourism. For example, businesses could form ski-conglomerates, diversify tourism products throughout the year, and market summer tourism over winter tourism. Low-lying ski resorts could begin planning to withdraw from ski-tourism, and move to less intensive winter activities such as snow shoeing. These low-lying resorts will be in the perfect area for summer tourism, therefore the resorts could pre-emptively create products and activities that will attract summer guests.

Increased summer tourism will put a strain on the infrastructure and buildings built for winter tourism, so the government could support sustainable development. For example, rather than building new accommodations for tourists, businesses could retrofit old buildings. This would prevent further environmental degradation and maintain the perception of the Alps as a historic, authentic destination. Resorts could also modify their ski-lifts and cable cars so that summer tourists can ride them to see the Alps’ picturesque landscapes.

Finally, the state could also support sustainable adaption by enacting climate-change mitigation legislation and offering relief in the case of climate-based economic losses. The state could also implement measures to incentivize sustainable behavior from tourists. For example, investing in cleaner, more efficient, and accessible transportation networks will give the Alps a competitive advantage over other popular summer destinations.

Cover photo by Brian Christner on Unsplash: Stechelberg in Switzerland.
The Maldives: Tensions between climate action and tourism

The Maldives: Tensions between climate action and tourism

By Gracie Pearsall

The Maldives are at the front lines of climate change. The nation is comprised of 1,200 coral islands grouped in archipelagos and atolls, and only sits about 2.5 meters above sea level. According to former president Mohamed Nasheed the Maldives are the third most at risk country to sea level rise. Facing a grave future from climate change, Nasheed created plans to make the Maldives carbon neutral by 2020 and urged other nations to follow suit. Nasheed’s successor, current president Abdulla Yameen, has taken a drastically different approach to addressing climate change. Yameen has traded in renewable energy and carbon neutrality, in favor of mass tourism. Yameen and his administration claim that growing the tourism industry would give their country the funds necessary to adapt to the changing climate.

A New Strategy

Unlike Nasheed, who famously sought to purchase Indian land so Maldivian people could relocate when the sea levels start to swallow the island, Yameen is determined for his people to remain in the Maldives. Now, the island nation is preparing for rising sea levels with geo-engineering projects to reclaim islands or even construct new islands. These projects are very expensive, so to fund them the government essentially lease out islands, which are then developed into mega-resorts to attract tourists. The money from these leases will also be used to relocate the residents of the leased island.

The islands are usually rented out to foreign investors, which could be companies or governments. In March of 2017, Saudi Arabia leased the Fafuu atoll for 10 billion USD – more than triple the Maldives’s GDP. For many people in the Maldives and around the globe, this deal raised eyebrows and many accused Yameen of selling the atoll. In response, the president issued a statement refuting claims he sold the atoll. Yameen emphasized that foreign-backed development is not out of the ordinary and is focused on delivering positive outcomes for Maldivians.


The Maldives are known for their natural beauty. Luxurious resorts, blue water, white sand, and vibrant reefs make the Maldives a popular destination for tourists looking to relax on the beach and “eco-tourists” hoping to see the pristine marine ecosystems. Yameen’s administration recognizes tourism’s lucrative potential and views it as a means to bring better living conditions to Maldivians as quickly as possible. Since the population is so dispersed throughout the archipelago, it is difficult for the government to provide services, such as water, education, and santitation to everyone. With money from tourism, the administration hopes to relocate and centralize the population to the larger islands so that all citizens can receive government services.

The Saudi’s plan for Fafuu could turn the island into a “Riviera-style super-resort with sea sports, six star hotels, high-end housing and several new airports”. With new developments, the administration hopes to increases tourism from 1.3 million visitors per year to seven million in the next 10 years. A booming tourism industry would increase more investors and provide the Maldives with the funds it needs to adapt to climate change. Additionally, the tourism industry will create thousands of new jobs. Furthermore, resorts could be beneficial for Maldivian reefs. According to Shiham Adam, director of the government’s Marine Research Centre, resorts can act as miniature marine reserves because they are required to protect at least 700m around the island

Conflicting interests

While the tourism scheme may seem like the Maldives’s saving grace, many Maldivians are wary of it. Locals fear they will be moved of their islands in favor of resorts. They are concerned the government will relocate them into apartments away from their island life. Environmentalists are concerned about the inevitable increase of carbon emissions as the Maldives develop their tourism industry. The thousands of extra flights to the Maldives will only further increase their emissions.

The administration accepts the reality that developing tourism and carbon-neutrality cannot co-exist, they are still committed to being a low-carbon country. They hope to invest in solar energy and reduce their emissions by 30 percent by 2030. The situation in the Maldives highlights the tension developing countries face between climate adaptation and development. The administration has made it clear that while climate change is a pressing issue, development is their priority. Yameen commented saying the Maldives, “should be afforded the ability to expand our economy to propel more and more Maldivians towards middle income status.”

Cover photo by Ishan @seefromthesky on Unsplash.
Air pollution turns the Taj Mahal yellow

Air pollution turns the Taj Mahal yellow

By Caroline Fouvet

A unique UNESCO World Heritage site, the Taj Mahal is one of the most admired monuments and draws millions of tourists to India. In 2016, 6.2 million visitors enjoyed the architectural beauty of this mausoleum that was built in the 17th century as a tribute from the Mughal emperor Shah Jehan to his wife, Mumtaz Mahal. The ivory marble gives the Taj Mahal its iconic look, but there are growing concerns that it may not remain as bright white in the future. Its façade is turning into a brown-yellow colour altering the monument’s most distinguishing feature and climate change might speed up this process.

Researchers are pointing to air pollution to explain this progressive change of colour. Airborne particulate matter, made of black carbon, light-absorbing brown carbon and dust, have a brown tint that discolours the Taj Mahal’s marble. Automobile fuels, brick making and burning residues that emanate from open stoves and farming seem to be responsible for the spread of these particles.

This is not a new problem as concerns regarding the mausoleum’s discolouration were already raised in the 1970s because of the pollutants emitted by a nearby oil refinery. After conducting one of the world’s most comprehensive studies of pollutants’ impact on a historical monument, the Government decided to undertake a project in 1998 to clean the air in the area surrounding the Taj Mahal. Despite these efforts, the pollutant levels kept increasing after a temporary drop in the early 2000s.

Air pollution has a reciprocal relationship with climate change since it fuels the phenomenon by increasing the amount of GHG gases and is compounded by warmer temperatures. It is a major societal issue given the health hazard it represents and it could be, in the Indian context, detrimental to tourism by affecting renowned monuments such as the Taj Mahal. But climate change can also worsen air pollution, which depends highly on weather patterns; with climate change, higher temperatures can worsen smog, increase instances of stagnant air, and worsen air quality.

In India, tourism represents almost 10% of the GDP (2016), which shows that preserving highly visited sites plays in favour of this sector and of the overall economic development. In the state of Uttar Pradesh, where the Taj Mahal is located, the World Bank currently runs a tourism-focused project with an overarching development objective for communities living around tourist hubs. This reflects the connection of both aspects and shows that addressing air pollution issues would have environmental and economic benefits at the same time.

Using eco-toursim to adapt to climate change in the Philippines

Using eco-toursim to adapt to climate change in the Philippines

By Gracie Pearsall

Located at the juncture of the typhoon belt and the Pacific Ring of Fire, the Philippines experiences more than its fair share of natural disasters. These disasters are especially harsh on the residents of Albay, a province in the Bicol region. These residents live in the shadow of Mt. Mayon, the Philippines’ most active volcano, which erupts every seven to ten years. Moreover, this low-lying region regularly experiences flooding from storm surges, and the capital city, Legazpi, sits on a bay notorious for frequent cyclones. Recently, the residents have become keenly aware of the risks that climate change presents. Yet, in the face of such perils, Albay has turned to tourism as a seemingly unlikely path to resiliency and disaster-risk reduction.

Tourism in Albay relies on the region’s unique ecology and beautiful natural features. Tourists often hike through tropical forests and hills to see the perfectly conical Mt. Mayon.  Tourists also flock to swim with whale sharks in one of world’s largest pods of whale sharks, in this region. Thus, the region views sustainable practices and “green development” as investments in these attractions.

Resilience to climate change will protect the Albay environment from degradation, and ensure that tourism will remain a profitable sector. The tourism-based economic boom has alleviated poverty, encouraged further resilient development, and allowed the government to create a world-renowned disaster-risk reduction strategy.

Albay, is already at risk for sea-level rise that could flood homes and infrastructure. Climate change would bring more frequent, and more severe storms that could cause further flooding. The increased precipitation would also make the destructive lahars (strong mudflows of ash and debris) more common. Climate-induced ocean acidification, and coral bleaching events, also would threaten the food security of coastal residents. Moreover, warmer temperatures would also reduce the entire region’s agricultural productivity. These risks would compound the ever-present threats of typhoons and volcanic eruptions.

The effects of climate change will disrupt the lives of every Albayan, and discourage tourism. In 2006, Typhoon Durian hit Albay, causing Mt. Mayon to unleash devastating mudslides that resulted in massive destruction and deaths. However, the region quickly recovered by using tourism to drive reconstruction. The government built 320 km of roads that connected tourist destinations across Albay. The region needed the development of this infrastructure not only to meet the growing tourism demand, but also to provide jobs so locals could bounce back from the typhoon.

The increased revenue from tourism has helped many people escape from poverty. For example, fishermen who were once making 100 Philippine pesos (PHP) per day, now make 200PHP per hour in the tourism industry. Furthermore, investment in tourism is a more long-term recovery method, than relying solely on foreign and federal aid.

Revenue from tourism also allowed the Albay government to implement mitigation, adaptation, and disaster risk management measures. Former governor Joey Salceda developed an award winning “zero-casualty” strategy for disaster risk management. The strategy includes risk mapping, improving infrastructure, early warning systems, engineering responses, and evacuation plans that even incorporate the same roads built for “eco-tours.”

This disaster risk-reduction strategy is not only a government matter, but also a community-based one. Every household is involved in the process. Parents teach their children the village’s disaster plan, which includes a designated disaster meeting place.  Schools teach children survival skills through games, thus making the entire community aware of the risks, and how to respond to them.

Similarly, the Albay government is focused on bottom-up solutions to climate threats. The government and environmental advocates often host workshops, training Albay residents on how to adapt to the changing climate. For example, as overfishing and warmer oceans decrease the productivity of the nearby reefs, many Albayans could become food insecure. To minimize this risk, activists taught coastal communities how to farm organically, so that the farmers could sustain themselves if the waters became unfishable. The ability to farm also makes communities more self-sufficient if a natural disaster were to isolate those communities. Furthermore, with the influx of tourists looking to sample local cuisine, increased food production through farming would help Albay cope with the higher demand for food.

To mitigate its contributions to climate change, Albay has invested in renewable energy and become a hot-spot for solar and geothermal alternatives. The province contributes nearly 300 megawatts of geo-thermal energy to the national grid, and has plans to contribute 350 megawatts more. The provincial government has recently planned a large solar power plant in the capital, Legazpi.

The government also took steps to protect and expand the forest – a critical area of carbon sequestration. In the past seven years, forest cover has expanded by 88% in Albay. Furthermore, the government increased coastal mangrove cover from 700 hectares to 2,400 hectares, thereby creating a crucial buffer between land and sea.

The tourism industry has driven some of these conservation efforts because the natural beauty is what draws tourists to Albay. The government’s tourist office controls the flow of tourists to prevent degradations, by creating themed tourism “lanes.” The green “eco-tourism” and blue “eco-nautical” lanes bring tourists through the most beautiful natural sites, while bypassing ecologically sensitive areas. Local guides also promote hiking and public transport to minimize tourists’ emissions during their stay.

Albay has turned its climate risks into opportunities. The region has shown that sustainable tourism not only preserves the attractiveness of the region, but also helps the area become more resilient.  The region also markets itself as a climate-destination and hopes to act as a model for other Filipino provinces by creating an inter-region network dedicated to resiliency and disaster risk reduction.

Cover photo by Sir Mervs/Wikimedia (CC by 2.0): Mount Mayon seen from Camalig, Albay, Philippines.
Agritourism booms as Iceland melts

Agritourism booms as Iceland melts

By Gracie Pearsall

Iceland’s natural beauty, breathtaking landscapes, and unique culture attract around one million tourists every year. After Iceland’s financial crisis in 2008, Iceland’s devalued currency and cheap flights made the country a “value destination,” which, combined with a post-volcanic eruption marketing effort in 2010, caused Iceland’s tourism industry to surge. Climate change has also recently caused a new sector to grow: Agriculture. As the planet warms, Iceland becomes more hospitable to agriculture, which has created a huge market for agritourism centered around Iceland’s livestock.

Heritage Breeds

Iceland is an island nation in the Arctic Sea, and the livestock gene pool is similarly island-like in isolation. For example, in order to preserve their cultural and agricultural heritage, Iceland focuses on native breeds. The country even banned the import of dairy cows and instead concentrated on improving the productivity of Icelandic cows. Such Icelandic “heritage breeds” are a source of national pride for its people. These, and other endemic breeds, such as the horned Icelandic sheep and pony-like Icelandic horses, attract many tourists who regard the breeds as pure and prestigious.

The livestock rely on forage, rangeland, and hay – all of which are more productive because of climate change. For example, for each degree °C of warming, hay production increases by 16%. A warmer climate means that Iceland can now grow crops that were once unimaginable for an Arctic climate. Conditions to produce cereal grains, potatoes and carrots have greatly improved. The rising temperatures allow ranchers to graze their cows on barley, a far more productive forage than hay. The agricultural sector can now expand to meet the growing demand for crops and agritourism. Agritourism takes advantage of the exclusive nature of Icelandic breeds, and presents Iceland with obvious short-term economic benefits.

Agrarian Appeal

The allure of Iceland’s idyllic agricultural life makes the island very appealing to agritourists searching for a peek into an authentic local agrarian lifestyle. These tourists often stay on farms or in agrarian villages, and take part in agricultural activities. These activities can range from helping with crop care, to renting horses, and eating at a village’s farm-to-table restaurant. Icelandic livestock are the most popular farm “attraction.” Many tourists rush to watch the Icelandic sheep herded in from the rangeland. These tourists also rent Icelandic horses, and feed the cows that are the source of the dairy products that tourists consume.

Farms are scrambling to build accommodations for the growing number of agritourists because tourism has become a reliable year-round source of income for farmers. Farms such as the Efstidalur dairy farm, are transitioning to farm-hotels, to tap into the agritourist market. This family farm’s first tourist venture was in 1992 when it started a horse rental service. Since then, the farm has grown to include a bed and breakfast, farm-hotel, and farm-to-table restaurant, that attract thousands of guests each year.

With 2.2 million tourists projected to visit Iceland in 2017, the agricultural sector must expand to meet demand. But despite the climate change-based agritourism boom, Iceland still faces serious climate threats. Warming is causing alarmingly accelerated land uplift and glacial melt. Furthermore, a 2015 study found that Iceland’s oceans are rapidly rising at 3.56 cm per year. Melting glaciers will have a devastating effect on Iceland, and could cause significant losses in the core tourism industry, as glacier-related attractions recede with the ice. Although climate change is not currently impeding the thriving tourism industry, the threat looms large. Just as easily as it has helped tourism, climate change could also decimate the industry.

Cover photo by Tim Wright on Unsplash.
Climate change could send prices rising for air travellers

Climate change could send prices rising for air travellers

By Gaspard Peña Verrier

Climate change may make it harder for planes to take off, and could ultimately result in higher ticket prices, and less baggage allowance for passengers, according to a recent study by researchers from Columbia University. The problems for aircraft come as air temperatures rise, and many parts of the world experience an increase in both the frequency and intensity of heatwaves.

The research suggests that, due to the density of air declining as air temperature rises, higher temperatures will make it more difficult for aircraft to take off. To compensate for this, aircraft may need to generate more speed on the runway, weigh less, or both. Some airports are likely to face more difficulties than others in compensating for this issue –  for example, those with shorter runways, in warm climates, or at high elevation where air is naturally less dense.

Currently, the primary method of coping with extreme temperatures in the commercial airline industry is to impose weight restrictions. However, the industry may want to find a more permanent solution. Possible adaptation measures include: increasing engine power (although this risks increasing greenhouse gas emissions, which would constitute mal-adaptation), and lengthening runways, which is not always possible due to space constraints.

The study’s conclusion is that climate change is most likely to result in tightening weight restrictions, which implies fewer passengers per flight for between ten and fifty days annually in most places by 2080. The likely upshot of such restrictions would be higher prices for passengers.

Gaspard Peña Verrier is studying for a double-degree at Masters in electrical engineering from CentraleSupélec and industrial economics from Paris Dauphine, France. He then plans to devote his time and skills to facilitating the transition to clean energy, either working on network design or financial regulation. Gaspard was last year president of his university’s student-led consulting firm and he has held several intern positions in analytics in the banking industry.


Cover photo by Pexels (Pixabay license).
Climate change will shift summer tourism north

Climate change will shift summer tourism north

By Gracie Pearsall

Tourism in Europe is a major source of economic wealth and jobs. In 2016, travel and tourism contributed 630 billion euros to the European economy. In this lucrative industry climate and weather have a significant influence. When tourists plan a holiday, they usually check weather forecasts and schedule trips when the weather conditions are optimal. A recent report suggests, climate change will alter the attractiveness of certain European tourist destinations, the duration of holidays, and the timing of holidays. Experts project that as Europe becomes warmer and drier. But while southern Europe and the Mediterranean will experience a decrease in tourism, northern Europe and the Baltics will experience a tourism boom.

Southern Europe and the Mediterranean

The Mediterranean is currently the tourism hotspot of Europe, and the tourism industry contributes 10% of employment and GDP in these countries. This region is already experiencing the effects of climate change. For example, temperatures are rising at a rate higher than the European average, and precipitation is decreasing. As a result, drought and wildfires are occurring more frequently. In the end of June, a wildfire spread through Portugal and Spain, killing 62 people and forcing the evacuation of thousands. A similar incident occurred in Italy in mid-July when a wildfire near Sicily hospitalized several people and forced resorts to close. News of deadly events during the height of tourism season will deter tourists from the Mediterranean. Additionally, rising mean temperatures will make southern Europe and the Mediterranean uncomfortably hot for tourists in the summer.

Long-term projections estimate that by 2080 southern European and Mediterranean countries will lose up to 0.45% of their annual GDP to climate-based shifts in tourism. For countries like Spain, where tourism makes up a huge portion of their economy, this could mean 5.6 billion euros in lost tourism revenue each year.

Northern Europe and the Baltics

Like the Mediterranean, the Baltics and northern Europe will also experience rising mean temperatures. However, hotter conditions in these regions will likely be favorable for summer tourism. The Baltics are witnessing rising water temperatures and less summer precipitation, both of which will entice summer tourists. Extreme weather events, particularly forest fires, will become more common in this region, regardless, projections show an uptake in tourism in northern Europe and the Baltics.

Hotter summers and decreased summer precipitation will make these previously unappealing colder destinations, very attractive to tourists looking for a warm, sunny holiday. Latvia, Estonia, Slovenia and Slovakia will likely see their tourism industries boom. The GDP of the southern European and Baltic countries could increase by 0.32% as a result of climate change. Unfortunately, such an increase would not outweigh the projected 0.45% loss in the Mediterranean countries, which means as a whole the EU will still lose tourism revenue.

Industry Adaptation

To combat climate-related tourism losses, the European tourism industry must become more resilient. For the demand-side of tourism, adaptation will be fairly easy because tourist make short term decisions and are not usually tied down to a certain destination (excluding tourists with holiday homes). To reduce the impact of climate change on their holidays, tourists can change their type of holiday. For example, tourists might choose to forgo a beach trip in favor of a mountain trip. Tourists can also shift their beach holidays north to escape the stifling Mediterranean heat. They can also adjust the time of their summer holiday from the height of the season, when the heat is most intense, to the “shoulder seasons” (May and September) when the climate is better.

Adaptations on the supply-side of tourism will be more intensive. One strategy is to promote the “shoulder seasons” rather than the typical main seasons. For example, destinations could offer discounts to tourists who book their summer holidays for May or August. Another strategy would be to invest in measures that reduce the perception of heat. These measures could include shading, air conditioning, or more water features, so that even if the temperature is not optimal, tourist will have a pleasant time and demand will not be negatively impacted.

Cover photo by Federico Giampieri on Unsplash
Glastonbury 2070? How the festival might have to cope with 4 degrees of global warming

Glastonbury 2070? How the festival might have to cope with 4 degrees of global warming

By Richard BettsUniversity of Exeter

Glastonbury, Britain’s largest and most famous music festival, is a great symbol of the many faces of the global climate change debate. It’s full of people enjoying life and relying on technology, easily available energy and consumer goods, yet it’s also deeply rooted in environmental and social justice concerns. And, of course, it’s also hugely exposed to extreme weather.

If the party is to keep going, can all these be reconciled? And what will it look like in the future – will it need to adapt to survive?

The climate is of course already changing. When Glastonbury’s founder Michael Eavis was born in 1935, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was not far above 300 parts per million (ppm). It’s now above 400ppm and rising, due to the emissions of carbon dioxide from human activities. Around the time of Eavis’s first festival in 1970, early efforts at climate modelling were predicting that the world would warm by 0.6°C by the year 2000. The actual observed warming was around 0.5°C, and again this is still rising.

The wider effects of this are beginning to emerge. Spring is occurring earlier, and there is generally more green vegetation worldwide due to rising CO₂ itself and also the warmer weather it brings. Average sea level is rising. There are more extremely hot days, fewer cold nights, more rain coming in heavy downpours, and more severe forest fires. The overall trend is clear: a changing climate, and the potential for increasing risks in future.

The forecast for Glastonbury 2070?

This year is the 47th anniversary of Glastonbury. By the time of the 100th anniversary in 2070, the high emissions scenario studied by IPCC implies a global warming of between 2.5℃ and 4℃ relative to pre-industrial levels, exceeding the 2℃ limit that most of the world’s countries have agreed to try to stay “well below” in the Paris Agreement. Even current pledges on emissions still imply warming above 2℃.

Glasto climate spiral. How much global warming between the first Glastonbury Festival and the 100th anniversary? (Animation: Ed Hawkins. Data is average of all climate model projections from CMIP5 RCP8.5)

A warmer world inevitably means further rises in sea level, due to melting land ice and the expansion of water as it warms. Global average sea level could rise by between about 30cm and 50cm, possibly more if large ice sheets collapse. In a 2.5℃-4℃ warmer world, much larger rises in sea level would be locked-in for centuries to come – a cause of deep concern for small island states and low-lying coastal regions.

Exactly what this means for south-west England, and Glastonbury, is hard to pin down. Climate models tend to project milder, wetter winters, and hotter, drier summers (although some models suggest summers will be slightly wetter). But even if summers do become drier overall, when it does rain we can expect more intense downpours, as already happens in hotter climates elsewhere in the world. Therefore we can expect increased flooding risk in both winter and summer.

Glastonbury is of course famous for its mud and occasional floods. Nearby are the Somerset Levels, a coastal plain also famous for widespread flooding both from rain and, occasionally, from the sea. The plain is around six metres above sea level, so would not be permanently underwater anytime soon, but rising sea levels will leave the area more exposed to temporary coastal flooding.

Deep green or tech solutions?

The two sides of Glastonbury perfectly illustrate the challenge facing society in reducing our impact on the environment. One the one hand, the festival has strong environmental traditions – the site at Worthy Farm has a fair amount of solar panels, and sustainable transport and recycling are strongly encouraged. On the other, there is no escaping the fact that the many stages have huge power demands, many festivalgoers will be keeping a concerned eye on their smartphone battery life, and private car and air travel are still prominent. At least one company offers customers the chance to beat the traffic jams by arriving via helicopter. (I mention this not in a judgemental way – I’d love to fly in myself if I could afford it – but just to point out that this is a reality of a huge party popular with people from all walks of life.)

All this easily-available energy is part of modern life that we take for granted, but it is also influencing the environment. For decades, we’ve been burning fossil fuels to power our worldwide increase in welfare and living standards, deforesting land to make way for food production, and producing cement to build our houses and the infrastructure that supports our enjoyable way of life. These advances have had huge benefits for global society. How can we keep the benefits and share them more widely while reducing the collateral damage to the climate before it becomes too severe? Frankly, how can we keep the party going without trashing the place?

Glastonbury is a pioneer of green thinking, but is the received wisdom of relying on renewables enough? It is increasingly argued that we need to consider a full toolbox of solutions, including some options that go against Glasto’s hippy traditions.

At the other end of the Somerset Levels is Hinkley Point, site of an existing nuclear power facility with expansion in the pipeline. Can a major power-hungry festival survive and thrive in a UK energy system without the nuclear option? What risks can we accept, both from climate change itself and the potential solutions that may be required? Can we minimise these risks in clever ways?

These are the conundrums we need to debate, and the challenges we need to address, illustrated by 200,000 people enjoying themselves for a few days in Somerset.

Prof Richard Betts is discussing the science of climate change at the 2017 Glastonbury Festival, in the Green Fields Area Speaker’s Forum on Friday at 11:00 and 17:00, and on Sunday at 17:00

Richard Betts, Chair in Climate Impacts, University of ExeterThe ConversationFind Richard on Twitter: @richardabetts

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

Cover photo by jasonwood/Wikimedia (CC by 2.0)